Let there be three independent events E1, E2 and E3. The probability that only E1 occurs is $\alpha$, only E2 occurs is $\beta$ and only E3 occurs is $\gamma$. Let 'p' denote the probability of none of events occurs that satisfies the equations
($\alpha$ $-$ 2$\beta$)p = $\alpha$$\beta$ and ($\beta$ $-$ 3$\gamma$)p = 2$\beta$$\gamma$. All the given probabilities are assumed to lie in the interval (0, 1).
Then, $$\frac{Probability\ of\ occurrence\ of\ E_{1}}{Probability\ of\ occurrence\ of\ E_{3}} $$ is equal to _____________.
Answer (integer)
6
Solution
Let P(E<sub>1</sub>) = x, P(E<sub>2</sub>) = y and P(E<sub>3</sub>) = z
<br><br>$\alpha$ = P$\left( {{E_1} \cap {{\overline E }_2} \cap {{\overline E }_3}} \right)$ = $$P\left( {{E_1}} \right).P\left( {{{\overline E }_2}} \right).P\left( {{{\overline E }_3}} \right)$$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ $\alpha$ = x(1 $-$ y) (1 $-$ z) ......(i)
<br><br>Similarly
<br><br>β = (1 – x).y(1 – z) ...(ii)
<br><br>$\gamma$ = (1 – x)(1 – y).z ...(iii)
<br><br>p = (1 – x)(1 – y)(1 – z) ...(iv)
<br><br>From (i) and (iv)
<br><br>${x \over {1 - x}} = {\alpha \over p}$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ x = ${\alpha \over {\alpha + p}}$
<br><br>From (iii) and (iv)
<br><br>${z \over {1 - z}} = {\gamma \over p}$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ z = ${\gamma \over {\gamma + p}}$
<br><br>$\therefore$ $${{P\left( {{E_1}} \right)} \over {P\left( {{E_3}} \right)}} = {x \over z} = {{{\alpha \over {\alpha + p}}} \over {{\gamma \over {\gamma + p}}}}$$ $$ = {{{{\gamma + p} \over \gamma }} \over {{{\alpha + p} \over \alpha }}} = {{1 + {p \over \gamma }} \over {1 + {p \over \alpha }}}$$ ..(v)
<br><br>Also given,
<br><br>($\alpha$ $-$ 2$\beta$)p = $\alpha$$\beta$ $\Rightarrow$ $\alpha$p = ($\alpha$ + 2p)$\beta$ ....(vi)
<br><br>$\beta$ $-$ 3$\gamma$)p = 2$\beta$$\gamma$ $\Rightarrow$ 3$\gamma$p = (p - 2$\gamma$)$\beta$ .....(vii)
<br><br>From (vi) and (vii),
<br><br>${\alpha \over {3\gamma }} = {{\alpha + 2p} \over {p - 2\gamma }}$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ p$\alpha$ - 6p$\gamma$ = 5$\gamma$$\alpha$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ ${p \over \gamma } - {{6p} \over \alpha } = 5$
<br><br>$\Rightarrow$ ${p \over \gamma } + 1 = 6\left( {{p \over \alpha } + 1} \right)$ ....(viii)
<br><br>Now from (v) and (viii),
<br><br>${{P\left( {{E_1}} \right)} \over {P\left( {{E_3}} \right)}}$ = 6
About this question
Subject: Mathematics · Chapter: Probability · Topic: Classical and Axiomatic Probability
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